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Hurricane Tracks are hard to predict!

One week ago it looked like "Hurricane Ernesto" would rake across Cuba and attack the central Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States - possibly making a direct hit on New Orleans. Ernesto clearly demonstrated that predicting the path of a hurricane is tricky business.

Ernesto veered north, degrading to Tropical Storm Ernesto as it passed over Florida and reducing to a tropical depression as it entered the Mid-Atlantic states. However, tropical storms and tropical depressions can still cause a lot of damage and disruption.

By Saturday, Ernesto had cut power to nearly one half million people, forced evacuations and caused heavy flooding in North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland and the District of Columbia. Portions of North Carolina and Virginia received up to one foot of rainfall.

When most people think about hurricanes and tropical storms their mind goes straight to Louisiana, Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Ernesto demonstrated that these storms can bring problems much farther north.

Labels: Hurricanes

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Image by National Hurricane Center.

• Caribbean Satellite Image and Map
• Cuba Satellite Image and Map
• Florida Satellite Image
• Alabama Maps
• Florida Maps
• Louisiana Maps
• Mississippi Maps

Tropical Storm Ernesto is tracking west-northwestward through the eastern Caribbean Sea and heading towards the Gulf of Mexico at about 15 miles per hour. Tropical storm watches are currently in effect for Jamaica and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. Maximum sustained winds are about 40 miles per hour with higher gusts.

The storm is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours and the center of Ernesto will pass near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. Rainfall amounts of three to six inches are forecast for portions of Hispaniola and Jamaica, while one to three inches is forecast for parts of Puerto Rico and the Dutch Netherland Antilles. The National Hurricane Center projections show Ernesto entering the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday at hurricane strength.


Image by National Hurricane Center.

The map above shows the storm center as an orange dot and projected locations as black dots. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time. Coastlines under tropical storm watch are outlined.

Get current information on Tropical Storm Ernesto at the NHC website.

Labels: Hurricanes

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Meteorologists at Colorado State University predict a "very active" hurricane season which begins on June 1, 2006 through November 30, 2006.

"Colorado State's forecast for the 2006 hurricane season anticipates 17 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Nine of the 17 storms are predicted to become hurricanes, and of those nine, five are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The hurricane forecast team predicts tropical cyclone activity in 2006 will be 195 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2005 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about 275 percent of the average season."

See the full forecast at the Colorado State Hurricane Forecast website.

Labels: Hurricanes

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Three news releases from the National Center for Atmospheric Research and MIT provide information that supports the idea that global warming will produce more powerful hurricanes - both in number and in storm strength.

• Hurricanes are getting stronger - NCAR
• Hurricanes growing fiercer with global warming - MIT
• Hurricanes to intensify as Earth warms - NCAR

Images from NASA

Labels: Global-Warming, Hurricanes

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Congress has directed the Corps of Engineers to identify, describe and propose a full range of flood control, coastal restoration and hurricane protection measures for coastal Louisiana. Information about this protection plan can be found at the Corps of Engineers website. A preliminary technical report for Category 5 protection is due within six months and a final technical report is due in 24 months.


Image by Army Corps of Engineers

Visit the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration plan website.

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Something to consider in the rebuilding of New Orleans: Seventeen Category 3 or higher storms have passed within 100 nautical miles of the city since 1852 - an average greater than one storm per decade. Combine that with a subsidence rate of one meter per century and a sea level rise of up to two meters per century and it is easy to understand that New Orleans is on risky and unstable ground long term.

Image produced with NOAA'sRead more about Rebuilding New Orleans.

Labels: Hurricanes

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2005 was a record year for hurricanes and tropical storms. According to the National Hurricane Center the 26 named storms of 2005 broke the previous record of 21 named storms set back in 1933. One-half of the named storms (13) reached hurricane intensity.

Three Category 5 storms (Katrina, Rita and Wilma) broke the previous record of two category 5 storms set in 1960 and tied in 1961. Seven named storms made landfall on U.S. coastlines (Arlene, Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Tammy and Wilma). Only 1916 and 2004 had a higher number of U.S. landfalls. Total U.S. damage attributed to these storms easily exceeds $100 billion.

A more detailed summary of the 2005 tropical storm season can be seen at the NOAA website.

Labels: Hurricanes

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Posted below are before and after images of the Gulf coast community of Holly Beach, LA - population approximately 300. The top images shows the community in 2004 before Hurricane Rita and the bottom image shows what remained in September, 2005. Almost every building was swept away and the roads within the community were buried with debris. The images below are a portion of an educational poster published by USGS.


Images by USGS and NOAA
For a more detailed view see the USGS poster Holly Beach - Hurricane Rita Impact.

Labels: Hurricanes

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Hurricane Wilma has strenghtened to Category 5 status and is moving through the Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba.

Image by NOAASee the most current Hurricane Wilma Track Map and hurricane / tropical storm warnings at the NOAA website.

Labels: Hurricanes, Maps

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The National Hurricane Center gives advice for preparing your home for hurricane season. Details specific to your roof, framing, shutters, doors and garage doors are provided.
 
Images by National Hurricane Center.
Read more at the NHC Hurricane Preparation website.

Labels: Hurricanes

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New York City has a serious exposure to hurricane damage. A large population and extensive property development along waterways yield a significant risk. A recent AP article on New York hurricane threat includes quotes by Nicholas Coch, author of the popular Geohazards textbook and NYC assemblyman Richard Brodsky. According to the article NYC is the third most vulnerable US city to hurricanes after New Orleans and Miami.

Hurricane Floyd Image by NOAA
More information is posted on the New York hurricane history pages of the NYC.gov website. This site details the impact of New York hurricane impact from unnamed storms in 1893 and 1938 along with named hurricanes Carol, Donna, Connie, Diane, Agnes, Gloria, Felix, Bertha, Edouard and Floyd.

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Geotimes is giving free access to four top articles on Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. Of special note is Geotimes giving WEBextra designation to the article: "Hurricane Outlook Updated" on August 8th - three weeks prior to Hurricane Katrina. These articles are:

• Rita: Could have been worse
• Katrina strikes the energy sector
• Water covers New Orleans
• Hurricane Katrina hits hard

Access this collection of Hurricane Articles at the Geotimes WEBextra Archive.

Labels: Hurricanes

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Hurricane Otis is strengthening and threatening Baja California. The Mexican Government has issued hurricane alerts for the Baja California Penninsula from Santa Fe southward on the Pacific coast and from La Paz Southward on the Gulf of California Coast.

Image by NOAASee the most up-to-date tropical storm data and updated Otis Track Map at the NOAA Website.

Labels: Hurricanes, Maps

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Hurricane Rita has been upgraded to a category five hurricane and is on path to make landfall in Texas late Friday night or early Saturday morning. This is from the National Hurricane Center's report on Hurricane Rita...

"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES. THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA.

More details about Hurricane Rita at the NHC website

Labels: Hurricanes

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Hurricane Rita has been upgraded to a category four storm. The National Hurricane Center reports...

"SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGHTEN AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A NOAA PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS."

September 22nd Gulf of Mexico IR Image by NOAAView additional Hurricane Rita Images at the "Latest Satellite Images" page of the NOAA website.

Labels: Hurricanes

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Hurricane Rita has a predicted track that will take it deep into the Gulf of Mexico later this week. This storm will likely develop to hurricane strength as it enters the warm waters of the Gulf. The Rita track map below shows the anticipated position of the storm between September 22nd and 27th.

Image by NOAASee updated information and the most up-to-date Hurricane Rita Track Map at the NOAA website.

Labels: Hurricanes

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Hurricane Jova is a Pacific Hurricane and is approaching the Hawaiian Islands. The five day track map below shows that there is a possibility of landfall late next week.

Image by NOAASee up-to-date maps and information for Hurricane Jova at the NOAA website.

Labels: Hurricanes

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At present it is unclear how homes damaged by Hurricane Katrina and related flooding will be covered by various types of insurance. Hurricane insurance policies might not cover flooding - and flood insurance policies might not cover flooding associated with a hurricane or with a levee break.
Read more about Hurricane Katrina Insurance Problems at The Independent Online Edition website.

Labels: Floods-Flooding, Hurricanes

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Hurricane Ophelia is in the Atlantic and moving towards the North Carolina and South Carolina shorelines. You can view satellite images of the Atlantic, updated hourly at the NOAA website. Images include visible, infrared, shortwave IR, Dvorak IR, water vapor and more.

Image by NOAAAccess the NOAA website currently showing satellite images of Hurricane Ophelia.

Labels: Hurricanes

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Hurricane Ophelia is on a track for a possible landfall in Georgia or South Carolina early next week. The National Hurricane Center has posted public advisories, strike probability maps, wind speed maps, wind charts, and potential hurricane track maps for Ophelia.

The Hurricane Ophelia track map below shows the coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink) and tropical storm warning (blue). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the storm. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time.


Image by NOAASee updated Hurricane Ophelia Track Maps at the NOAA website.

Labels: Hurricanes, Maps

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Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm tracks for 2004 are shown on the image below. Included are tracks for Alex, Bonnie, Charley, Danielle, Earl, Frances, Gaston, Hermine, Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole and Otto. Many of these hurricanes were associated with flooding and landslide problems in the southern and eastern United States and Caribbean islands. Below the image are links to maps for previous years and also a link to the National Hurricane Center where a complete archive of information can be accessed.

Images from the National Hurricane Center

2004 Hurricane Track Map
2003 Hurricane Track Map
2002 Hurricane Track Map
2001 Hurricane Track Map
2000 Hurricane Track Map
1999 Hurricane Track Map
1998 Hurricane Track Map
1997 Hurricane Track Map
1996 Hurricane Track Map
1995 Hurricane Track Map

National Hurricane Center Archive

Labels: Hurricanes, Maps

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The Naval Research Laboratory has described a 91-foot wave that is the largest ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico. This record wave was measured during the Hurricane Ivan storm with instruments placed on the continental shelf, about 100 miles south of Gulfport on September 15, 2004. Bill Teague, a physical oceanographer at NRL says that it is highly unlikely that waves of this magnitude would ever make it to shore because they break and lose energy as the enter the shallow water of the coast.

Read more about the Record Hurricane Wave at the Ocean Air Space Industry Site.

Labels: Hurricanes

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The tropical storms from which hurricanes develop used to be named with a latitude / longitude designation that was difficult to remember, difficult to communicate easily and subject to numerous errors. However, in 1953 the National Hurricane Center began giving women's names to tropical storms originating in the Atlantic Ocean. Once this practice started hurricane names quickly became part of common language and public awareness of hurricanes increased dramatically.

In 1979 a new naming method began with men's and women's names being alternated. Six different lists of names are now used and these lists are recycled every six years. However, there is one exception - if a storm is especially deadly or costly then that name is retired from the list and a new name is selected to replace it. Here is the list of Atlantic hurricane names that will be used for the next six years.

Names of Future Atlantic Tropical Storms
2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Arlene	Alberto	Andrea	Arthur	Ana	Alex
Bret	Beryl	Barry	Bertha	Bill	Bonnie
Cindy	Chris	Chantal	Cristobal	Claudette	Colin
Dennis	Debby	Dean	Dolly	Danny	Danielle
Emily	Ernesto	Erin	Edouard	Erika	Earl
Franklin	Florence	Felix	Fay	Fred	Fiona
Gert	Gordon	Gabrielle	Gustav	Grace	Gaston
Harvey	Helene	Humberto	Hanna	Henri	Hermine
Irene	Isaac	Ingrid	Ike	Ida	Igor
Jose	Joyce	Jerry	Josephine	Joaquin	Julia
Katrina	Kirk	Karen	Kyle	Kate	Karl
Lee	Leslie	Lorenzo	Laura	Larry	Lisa
Maria	Michael	Melissa	Marco	Mindy	Matthew
Nate	Nadine	Noel	Nana	Nicholas	Nicole
Ophelia	Oscar	Olga	Omar	Odette	Otto
Philippe	Patty	Pablo	Paloma	Peter	Paula
Rita	Rafael	Rebekah	Rene	Rose	Richard
Stan	Sandy	Sebastien	Sally	Sam	Shary
Tammy	Tony	Tanya	Teddy	Teresa	Tomas
Vince	Valerie	Van	Vicky	Victor	Virginie
Wilma	William	Wendy	Wilfred	Wanda	Walter

Labels: Hurricanes

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NOAA has posted a collection of Hurricane Track Maps for the Atlantic and Gulf states. These maps show cumulative hurricane tracks all storms which have passed over or within ten nautical miles of the state's border since 1851. Hurricane track maps can be viewed for Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia. Read more about Hurricane History and Hurricane Track Maps at the NOAA website.

Labels: Hurricanes

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